School Enrollment Trends & Projections Through 2019 - 2010

SAD 55 - Baldwin, Cornish, Hiram, Parsonsfield, and Porter

• What have been historical trends in school enrollments?
• What level of enrollment is expected over the next ten years at each of the grade levels?

Summary

In order to plan future facilities and operations these are the questions that SAD 55 needed answered.  PolicyOne responded by  analyzing  trends in school enrollments in SAD 55 from the 1999-00 school year through the 2009-10 and presenting enrollment projections through 2019-20.  This was done using the PolicyOne cohort survival model which analyzes births to residents within the district, existing enrollment levels, and net-migration of preschool and school-aged children.  In addition, PolicyOne considered trends in economic conditions and housing and their impact on enrollments.

What we found

• Elementary enrollments in SAD 55 are projected to  increase from current levels then remain relatively stable through 2019-20
• Middle and High school enrollments are projected to decline
• The recent economic downtown has lead to a decrease in housing which in turn has lead to a slowing of student in-migration.  This is not likely to change for several years until economic recovery strengthens.

Are you interested in how enrollment projections are going to change between now and 2019-2020?  Find out more by reading the School Enrollment Trends & Projections Through 2019-20

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